The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum: Challenges, Revival Efforts, and Prospects for Enlargement to Syria and Lebanon

The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), formally established in 2020, was envisioned as a multilateral platform to leverage the region's substantial natural gas resources and position the Eastern Mediterranean as a global energy hub. However, its potential has been undermined by geopolitical risks, regional rivalries, and shifting political and economic realities. While the forum has faced significant challenges in recent years, there are renewed efforts—particularly by Egypt—to revitalize its role, with discussions about potential enlargement to include Syria and Lebanon.

Challenges Facing the EMGF

Geopolitical Fragmentation and Declining Cooperation

The EMGF's multilateral approach has struggled due to volatile political alliances, security risks, and rising regional tensions. The forum's activities largely stalled for about 18 months following the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel, the subsequent Israeli military operation in Gaza, and tensions involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks from Yemen. Additionally, strained relations between forum members and financial difficulties in Egypt have led to a decline in coordinated efforts.

As a result, countries have increasingly pursued bilateral and trilateral agreements rather than relying on the EMGF's framework. Egypt's direct energy partnerships with Israel and Cyprus, for example, have been more effective in addressing its immediate energy needs. Energy companies such as Chevron, Eni, and TotalEnergies have emerged as the primary drivers of regional cooperation, often bypassing the forum's multilateral structure in favor of flexible, profit-driven initiatives.

Egypt's Energy Struggles and the Need for New Resources

Egypt has played a central role in the EMGF due to its liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure and strategic location. However, declining gas production, increasing domestic consumption, and financial strains have fundamentally altered its role. By 2024, Egypt's gas needs reached approximately 180 million cubic meters per day, leading the country to become a net importer rather than an exporter of natural gas. Additionally, Egypt's unpaid debts to foreign oil companies further hindered exploration and investment in its energy sector.

Revival Efforts and Potential Enlargement

The Push to Revitalize the EMGF

Egypt is taking concrete steps to restore the EMGF's relevance. Former Egyptian Oil Minister Osama Kamal has emphasized that a ceasefire in Gaza would be crucial in enabling the forum's revival. At the same time, Cairo is working closely with Cyprus to finalize agreements on gas transportation infrastructure. The planned undersea pipeline from the Aphrodite field to Egypt is expected to be a game-changer, enabling Egypt to liquefy and export Cypriot gas globally while stabilizing regional energy flows.

The Case for Including Syria and Lebanon

With Egypt's energy production stagnating and the EMGF seeking to enhance its resource base, enlarging the forum to include Syria and Lebanon has been proposed. Former Minister Kamal has suggested that large discoveries could soon be made along the Syrian coast, opening the door for further energy cooperation.

Both Syria and Lebanon possess untapped offshore energy potential, and their inclusion could strengthen the forum's position in regional energy dynamics. However, this prospect presents significant challenges:

• Syria's Geopolitical Instability: Following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, Syria remains politically fragile. While the country is opening up to foreign energy investments, lingering sanctions, territorial disputes, and internal divisions make its integration into the EMGF complex.
• Lebanon's Political and Economic Barriers: Despite electing President Joseph Aoun in January 2025, Lebanon remains politically fragmented. Internal governance challenges and maritime boundary disputes with Israel could hinder its ability to effectively participate in the forum.

The Path Forward: A Pragmatic Approach

For the EMGF to remain relevant, it must adapt to regional dynamics by balancing multilateral ambitions with practical, business-driven solutions:

• Leveraging Public-Private Partnerships: Energy companies will continue to drive resource development in the region. Governments should focus on providing regulatory oversight and political support while allowing private sector expertise to lead exploration and infrastructure projects.
• Securing New Resource Streams: Egypt's declining production underscores the need for alternative gas sources. Finalizing agreements with Cyprus and potentially integrating Syria and Lebanon into regional energy cooperation could help sustain energy flows and maintain the viability of export projects.
• Soft Power and Diplomatic Coordination: In the short term, the EMGF may need to function as a soft power platform, facilitating dialogue and informal coordination rather than relying on rigid multilateral agreements. This approach could help rebuild trust and lay the groundwork for deeper cooperation in the future.

Conclusion

The EMGF was established to foster multilateral energy cooperation, but its role has diminished due to geopolitical fragmentation and the increasing reliance on bilateral agreements. While Egypt's recent efforts to revive the forum—particularly through cooperation with Cyprus—offer hope, significant challenges remain. The inclusion of Syria and Lebanon could expand the EMGF's resource base, but the risks associated with political instability, security concerns, and investment uncertainty must be carefully managed.

Ultimately, the EMGF's revival will depend on a pragmatic, business-driven approach that aligns governmental interests with energy companies' operational capabilities. By fostering public-private partnerships and maintaining flexibility in its cooperation models, the forum can adapt to regional challenges and reassert its role as a key platform for energy collaboration in the Eastern Mediterranean.